Rice

India rice export trade witnessed a flat to bullish tone for the last week, as rice export prices were affected as the local exchange fluctuations boosted the Rupee. Rice exporters have revealed the volatility in terms of new fixtures which will affect rice export prices for the short term. Domestic rice markets will continue to be stable on account of limited purchasing.

Rice import across the globe

Rice importing countries continue to purchase rice for stockpiling.

Indian rice traders maintained a neutral tone for the near term as most rice trading countries are encountering a shipping crisis followed by law-and-order uncertainty at the destination. Rice buying demand is good from West Africa but shipment lead times and related delays on account of container/vessel volatility have depressed the market extensively over the last 3 weeks. East African rice traders continue to be neutral as purchasing positions are not firm for the near period.

Outlook of rice trade across the globe

Rice exporting & importing countries are facing a shipping crisis.

India sugar exports, the world's 2nd largest sugar producer, might restrict a rally in international sugar export prices that reached 4.5 years high in August 2021 as sugar exporters started scaling down that estimated Brazil's production due to bad weather. The Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) stated that India may possibly export 6 Mn MTS of sugar in the upcoming marketing year as the international sugar shortage is set to aggravate this year 2021 because of lower sugar production in Brazil. ISMA said that the country can export a record of 7 Mn MTS for M.Y ‘21/’22, banking on a government grant for foreign sales.

The increasing demand of Indian sugar export

Indian sugar traders have signed contracts to export 1.2 Mn MTS for M.Y '21/'22 that starts from Oct. 1.

India might possibly export as much as 22 Mn MTS of rice this year, or more than the joint rice exports of the next three major rice exporting countries Thailand, Vietnam, and Pakistan. stated by Nitin Gupta, Vice president of Olam India's rice trading. Gupta also added that alongside traditional rice buyers, the other rice importing countries such as China, Vietnam, and Bangladesh are also now buying rice from India. India's rice exports in 2020 increased by 49% from the previous year to a record of 14.7 Mn MTS, as exports of non-basmati rice increased by 77% to a record of 9.7 Mn MTS. As per Gupta in 2021, non-basmati rice exports might almost double from 2019 to 18 Mn MTS, while premium basmati rice trades witnessed a steady export at 4 Mn MTS. The U.S. Department of Agriculture projects estimated the global rice exports by 48.5 Mn MTS in the ‘21- ‘22 period.

The continuous demand of rice export from India

India may possibly export as much as 45% of the total international rice trade in 2021.

India sugar exporters have paused signing new export deals. As per one industry official, a rally in local sugar prices to a 4-year high broadened the gap between domestic and global sugar prices. Sugar traders also predicted that global sugar prices will pick up further after bad weather damaged the harvests of the top sugar-producing country, Brazil. Abinash Verma, director-general of the Indian Sugar Mills Association stated that raw sugar in New York would need to increase to 20.5 cents a pound to again attract sugar exporters from the western Maharashtra state and the southern region. He also added that Indian sugar traders have already signed sugar export deals to ship 1.2 Mn MTS from the M.Y ‘21/’22 that starts from October 1, 2021, taking advantage of a recent rally in sugar prices.

Sugar trades slow down due to rising prices

Domestic sugar prices in India increase by 13% in 2 months to a 4-year high.

As part of its plan to boost and increase Indian non-basmati rice exports, the Agricultural and Processed Food Exports Development Authority (APEDA) arranged a virtual meet for non-Basmati rice exporters in partnership with the Indian Embassy in Lomé, Togo. As per Official press announcement, key representatives from APEDA, the Indian embassy, the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Togo, and major rice exporters from India attended the virtual meeting. India exported around 13 Mn MTS of non-basmati rice worth Rs.35476 crore, last fiscal year. Non-basmati rice worth Rs.14091 crore was exported during the present fiscal year's April-July period. Togo procures the following non-basmati rice variants: white rice, broken rice, and parboiled rice. It also acts as a gateway to other rice importing countries such as Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso.

APEDA organized a virtual meeting with stakeholders

APEDA plans to boost Indian Non-Basmati rice exports to Togo.

All India Sugar Trade Association (AISTA) said that sugar traders exported an estimated 7.23 Mn MTS in the 2020-21 marketing year that ended September 30, 2021. They also added that an estimated 6 Mn MTS of sugar was exported with government subsidy and 7.85 lakh MTS without subsidy. AISTA added that India, which is the second-highest sugar producer in the world after Brazil, exported the highest quantities of sugar to Indonesia. Afghanistan, United Arab Emirates, and Somalia were the other three countries, which had the maximum number of shipments of sugar from India. India sugar exporters might be able to fill the global supply gap for sugar as the Brazilian crop ends. One of the sugar traders from Brazil said that without India filling this gap, from November to April, the international sugar trade would have a major problem.

Traders see a larger potential of Sugar Supplies from India

According to AISTA, India exported 7.23 Mn MTS Sugar for M.Y ’20-’21.

Traders see a larger potential of sugar supplies from India

India’s exports for 37 main agriculture and processed goods, endorsed by the Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (APEDA), increased by 18% to $10 Bn throughout the first half of the current fiscal. The overall export of APEDA commodities was $8.51 Bn in April-September 2020. Export of all rice variants, both basmati and non-basmati, recorded a 12.3% increase to $4.59 billion in April-September 2021. A 110% increase in other cereals like maize and wheat at $448 Mn for the period of H1 FY22. M Angamuthu, chairman of APEDA said that the significant increase in Agri-exports is seen as evidence of the government’s dedication to increasing farmers’ income through giving thrust on boosting exports of agricultural and processed food products of the country.

India’s Agri exports increase by 18% in the 1st half of current Financial Year

Basmati and Non-basmati rice export, recorded 12.3% growth to $4.59 Bn in Apr-Sep 2021.

Sugar exports from India may face challenges in the 2021-22 season even despite the fact that 1.8 Mn MTS had already been contracted at the beginning of the season itself. As per the Secretary for Food and Public Distribution, Sudhanshu Pandey. Addressing the All-India Sugar Traders Association (AISTA) on global sugar trade, he said that last year India was able to export 7.2 Mn MTS of the sweetener to several destinations and nearly 50% of this went to three sugar importing countries — Indonesia, Afghanistan, and Sri Lanka. Pandey said that these sugar importing countries have different dynamics this year. Thailand’s production is expected to increase this time and so Thailand sugar will try to find a possibility to trade with Indonesia. Indian sugar will have to compete in the Indonesian market again. Instability in Afghanistan may affect India’s sugar exports to the country and Sri Lanka has a massive foreign currency shortage. And therefore, a new plan will have to be thought of by the industry so that the export trade market is also served. Pandey said that India is planning to divert about 3.5 Mn MTS for ethanol production in 2022 and by 2023, the goal is that at least 6 Mn MTS of sugar should be diverted for ethanol production. But at the same time, India is also considering new market opportunities for sugar export.

Sugar trade across the globe

Datagro consultancy stated that Brazil's new sugar season will recover as rains return.

India's non-basmati rice exports for the year 2022 may see a lower export output in comparison to 2021 since all the major producing countries in the world including Myanmar, Thailand, Vietnam, Bangladesh, and Pakistan have witnessed a good crop yield in the ongoing season of 2021. As per B V Krishna Rao, president of Rice Exporters Association, most of these countries have seen an improvement in terms of economic activity and reduction of lockdowns, drought-like situations, and transportation bottlenecks. This is stated to allow overseas buyers of rice to explore more origins. He also added that in 2022, since the international production of rice is projected to remain higher, Indian rice exports may not stay firm like in 2021.

Arrivals of fresh rice crops in all the rice-producing countries

In 2022, global rice production is estimated to remain higher.

The 2021-22 marketing year sugarcane season guarantees to be a historical one for the sugar trade. With sugar prices turning bullish in both local and international markets, the sugar trader looks forward to seeing strong exports without the need for government subsidy. Prakash Naiknavare, managing director of the National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories stated that the decision of the central government to move forward for ethanol has also shown to be a game-changer for the industry and will support its function independent of any government assistance or subsidy. he also added that 34 lakh MTS of sugar were estimated to be diverted for the making of the ethanol this 2021, as compared to 22 lakh MTS diverted last 2020.

Sugar Traders looks forward to having a strong export for M.Y 2021-22

India: sugar prices turn bullish in both local and international markets.

Top rice exporting country, India rice export price for 5 percent broken parboiled rice was estimated at $354 to $360 per MTS this week, their lowest since mid-August 2021, decreased from $359 to $364 per MTS from the previous week. One Indian rice exporter said that rice importers are delaying purchases since prices have been dropping for the past few weeks. They are anticipating a further decrease in the rice export prices.

Rice Importers of Indian rice are looking forward to further price drop

India's rice export prices dropped to their lowest in 3 months.

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